Outside the Ropes Executive Summary PDF Print E-mail
Pellucid Foreword
Happy New Year from Pellucid Corp., a leading information and insight provider to the golf industry!  As a New Year present to all of those in our contact network, below is the current full issue of our tri-weekly newsletter Outside the Ropes (OTR) reviewing the golf industry key metrics and events of 2011.  OTR is a tri-weekly, paid subscription newsletter with a base of nearly 400 readers who rely on Pellucid’s keen eye and independent perspective to guide their thinking on strategic to grass-roots industry issues.  If you’d like to join that dialogue as a subscriber in 2012, you can for $130 (17 issues annually plus access to the historical archive of over 200 articles) by using the link below to get started with a credit card payment: http://www.pellucidcorp.com

For those who prefer an invoice, email Jim Koppenhaver ( This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ) and you can get started that way as well.  Best wishes for a more prosperous 2012!  We help our clients make better-informed business decisions and gently remind them that “Hope is not a strategy.”
JAK

Golf Industry 2011: May You Live in Interesting Times
The above subtitle is often referenced as “the Chinese curse” (although there is no clear documentation of it originating in China or that it was in fact a curse).  Although 2011 won’t qualify as one of the worst years in recent history, we as an industry just can’t seem to shake the nagging lack of growth in players, rounds and revenue.  In this issue, I’ll take a pre-State of the Industry look at how 2011 will go in the books on the key metrics.  In addition, I’ll touch on the more noteworthy events within the key industry segments as outlined below:
1.    Key metrics review: Golfers, Rounds, Utilization, Revenue, Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) and Supply level and change
2.    Grow-the-game program results and prognosis for success (Flogton, Tee it Forward, Golf 2.0)
3.    Facility Health and key trends (Sharper Edge client and Voice of the Local Golfer (VoLG) survey summary, private club evolution, munis at the precipice)
4.    Facility service and technology providers trends (PoS providers, 3rd party tee time marketers, mobile/social media etc.)
5.    Consumer equipment dynamics and changes (TMaG's white technology, Acushnet sale, Callaway implosion)

What I’ll save for the Orlando discussions are our prognostications on what 2012 will hold and where we think the major opportunities and challenges will lie in the year ahead.  True to my nature as a realist, I don’t see any significant signs of imminent recovery in the broad range of measures which we track.  That said, even in flat to declining markets there will be winners and losers and part of our job is to guide our readers to whatever safe havens exist to survive, if not thrive, in the midst of the industry storm.  As I’ll outline in this issue, for facility owner/operators, 2012 will continue to be about winning the battle for share-of-golfer which will require intelligent, efficient and consistent marketing as well as a hint of strategic pricing planning.

Golf industry key metrics continue to fight the gravity of poor US macro-economic picture.

The more time I spend in this industry, the more I continue to gravitate back to some relatively simple truths about golf and the health of our industry’s consumer base:  Golf is a game and industry of discretionary money and time.  If one considers that currently the US as a whole is at a historically low level on both dimensions, it should come as no surprise that the consumer base for golf isn’t growing.  In my opinion, what’s currently most impacting the golf industry is the thinning of the middle class.  If you read (and believe) the mainstream media, it’s not the upper-class that’s suffering in this current cycle (I’m arbitrarily defining that for purpose of discussion as the $200K+ HH income crowd), it’s the middle class that’s getting squeezed, primarily on the employment front as corporations downsize and reduce middle-management which has long been a staple of our consumer base.  More on that in a future newsletter but, given that this situation didn’t improve meaningfully in 2011, I’m not optimistic that the consumer base will show growth when the numbers are tallied in the 1st quarter of 2012.

If my hunch is right on the 2011 consumer base retrospective, then it would follow that a decline in the golfer base beget (or at least contributed to) a decline in rounds.  We have the benefit of a couple of data points that tell us where rounds are likely to settle.  According to the October Golf Datatech/NGF rounds report, we’re -4% Year-to-Date (YtD) and historically that comprises 90% of all rounds so we’re pretty much assured that rounds will be between -3% to -5% for the year.  This would continue 2010’s rounds played retreat which was -2% compared to 2009.  Adding to the rounds calculus is a recent NGF Core Golfer (8+ annual rounds) study which reported that 34% of Core Golfers say they played fewer rounds in the current 12 months vs. the previous 12 months.  The important comparison here is that 18% of the Core Golfers reported playing more.  While we don’t know the magnitude of the more/less (i.e. if the “less” contingent played 5 fewer rounds/each and the “more” contingent played 5 more rounds/each then rounds go down because the “less” golfer base outnumbers the “more” by roughly 2:1), all things being equal it would appear that we’re going to show a decline in rounds from our Core Golfers as defined by NGF. 

That brings us to the topic of weather impact as reflected in Pellucid’s proprietary tracking of Utilization (Rounds played/Capacity rounds).  Through October, we’re showing that we can explain a 3% rounds decline due to less favorable weather at the national level.  This means that Utilization will most likely drop by roughly 1 point for 2011 (the 4% rounds decline compared to the 3% weather unfavorability).  Not a catastrophic decline but it does make the point that we can blame the majority, but not the totality, of 2011’s downward drift in rounds on weather.
On the facility Greens Fee Revenue front (I’m sticking with this as the key metric until I can figure out how PerformanceTrak continues to show flat Total Revenue against 2-5% declines in GF Revenue which comprises 55-65% of total course revenue), we’re tracking -2% through October so it would appear that we’ll be down 1-3% on that front when the December dust settles.  The good news here is that a 4% decline in rounds and a 2% decline in GF Revenue would translate to a 2% gain in rate.  If that in fact plays out, it would suggest on the surface that we’re seeing some positive progress against the “discount wars” that have been one of the multiple forces plaguing our industry over the past 5 years.

Factoring weather into the GF Revenue numbers, the news gets even better because a 2% decline in GF revenue juxtaposed to the 3% decline in Capacity Rounds will produce a slight uptick in the key metric of RevpAR.  In other words, we improved the financial efficiency of our factories in 2011 within the constraints of weather.  Said another way, we can explain 100% of our GF Revenue decline to weather (that’s because we had favorable rate movement and how Utilization can go down but RevpAR can go up).  We’ll have the actual numbers through November for the State of the Industry presentation but, as of now, it looks like the Revenue per Played Round (RevpPR) will come in just above $30 at the All Facilities/National level and the Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) will come in just above $15.
The next key metric we’ll review is how supply has changed through October 2011.  We do this by comparing our licensed copy of the NGF facility database vintage October 2011 to its predecessor vintage October 2010.  The good news is that supply levels continue their retreat, albeit at a slower pace than needed by the industry to produce any meaningful relief from the dilutive effects of the period of “irrational exuberance” from 1990-2005.  Our quick and inexact analysis suggests that we’ll see a net reduction in supply of roughly 100+ facilities (the database match showed just over 100 new listings compared to just over 200 deleted listings).  This would be a slightly higher pace than we’ve seen in 2009-2010 but it’s quite possible that the NGF’s more thorough accounting (they look for things like name changes etc. which our quick match comparison won’t indentify) at the end of the year will show that the supply absorption pace continues at about a net loss of 50-75 courses (or an agonizingly slow rate of).

The next key metric is golf consumer equipment sales.  Based on Golf Datatech’s September figures, it appears that the equipment sector will have its first positive year-on-year results on dollar sales in several years.  Unless we see some meaningful activity in Q4, which would be an anomaly vs. history, it would appear that equipment dollar sales will finish up between 2-5% in total.  It appears that this will be driven almost exclusively by the Durables subsegment (that’s a Pellucid classification which includes Clubs & Bags) being driven by strong performance in woods (TMaG’s “white” technology) supported by solid gains in irons as well.  It also appears that On-Course will turn in better numbers than Off-Course but, due to the continuing decline in the contribution of On-Course, that success will be muted by the smaller gains in the Off-Course channel.  All-in-all, consumer equipment sales will be one of the bright spots for the golf industry in the 2011 key metrics scorecard. 

Growing the game, an interesting year at least in concepts and program creation.

The year 2011 brought us not one, but three new grow-the-game initiatives.  We started the year at the 2011 PGA Merchandise Show with the hastily-assembled gathering to introduce Flogton (“not golf” spelled backwards).  By far the most outside-the-box thinking among the grow-the-game initiatives in the past decade, it proposed a relatively radical and broad bifurcation of the game of golf via relaxation of both rules and equipment standards.  Scott McNealy, founder of Sun Microsystems, is the most prominent face and voice for the Alternative Golf Association (Flogton is just a working name for the initial effort to diversify and broaden the reach of golf by making it easier, more fun and less traditional).  In my opinion, one of the foundational steps that needs to happen in order for the AGA initiative to be successful is the creation of an equipment manufacturing capability or an existing manufacturer partnership to produce reliable game improvement equipment without regard to the current USGA specifications.  As of this writing, I’m not aware that they’ve yet cleared that hurdle.  This is not saying that they can’t advance other elements of the concept in parallel but, in my mind, taking advantage of technology to make the learning curve faster and easier via “recreational golf” equipment is an integral and necessary factor in success.  As I understand it, they still need funding and support on multiple levels and so tangible progress in 2011 has been minimal.  For what it’s worth, I’m in support of their mission and agenda as I believe that meaningfully changing the golf consumer base by “tweaking” our current product and positioning alone is an effort in futility.

The 2nd initiative announced during the year was the Tee it Forward concept advanced by Adams Golf founder Barney Adams and since adopted by several of the industry organizations including the PGA of America and the USGA (not sure that the USGA has formally endorsed it but since it doesn’t violate any of their sacred principles of equipment or course rating it likely has at least their tacit approval).  The concept is to get amateur golfers to play the appropriate set of tees based on comparable approach shots relative to what the pros are hitting.  In most cases, that’s one set of tees forward from where the average amateur currently plays.  The payout would be more enjoyment (hitting shorter irons into greens), lower scores and faster play.  Through a series of PR events throughout the year, a number of courses have either signed up or staged Tee it Forward events and early consumer feedback has been positive (albeit a limited number of post-play surveys conducted by the industry associations who have a vested interest in both the message and the outcome).  What is unknown at this time is a) Is this scalable to make an impact on the national golfer/frequency base?  b) Is it increasing frequency among existing players or attracting new players (or both)?  c)  Can we quantify the pace-of-play improvement or is it just “soft benefit” that can’t really be quantified to create consumer “buzz” and get wider, faster facility endorsement and adoption?  The upside of this program is that it’s minimally invasive relative to the current game of golf (which is one of the reasons why I think it has appeal in increasing frequency among existing golfers but less traction in creating new golfers) and has the fewest “moving parts” (i.e. requires relatively little investment, no new equipment partners, no relaxation of rules etc.).  The downside is that there’s no clear plan to my knowledge of how to sc! ale this so that it makes at least a blip on the national radar of key measures (golfers, rounds) and I feel that the tracking and refinement tools currently in place are inadequate and subject to message control by the industry associations that have aligned with it.

The final grow-the-game initiative of 2011 is the PGA of America’s Golf 2.0 initiative which is fairly extensive and more strategic in nature than the two programs mentioned above.  Since I’ve covered this topic extensively in a previous OTR issue, I’ll only summarize by saying that I think they’re making steps in the right direction relative to Golf 20/20 but, like the industry’s supply absorption challenge, it seems to me that we’re making too small and indirect steps toward the goal of identifying the best targets for increased participants and then having an actionable plan to pursue them and track results.  Case in point, if we’re going to convert the unexposed, why isn’t the first and foremost target those who most look like our current franchise (i.e. older, affluent, white males)?  I was interviewed recently for a Golfweek story that will be published in the 2011 PGA Show edition on this topic which will outline a few more of the gaps I see in the current program as outlined (as well as some comments on positive evolutions I see in the program vs. Golf 20/20).

In sum however, I don’t see anything on the current plate of grow-the-game programs that’s going to meaningfully impact the 2011-2015 consumer base or rounds picture at the national level.  That said, I’m not saying we throw in the towel on any of these in particular or future ideas that I’m sure will emerge because we have to keep trying.  I just wish that we could come up with a coalition plan that’s a shorter route and garners enough grass-roots support to drive quantifiable success or failure in the short-term vs. our current meandering path.  It may be however that this is the way it has to be in the current environment, much like the curious and circuitous route that the Republicans are taking to figure out who to nominate for their Presidential candidate in 2012.

Golf facility segment performance and trends.

To say that it was another challenging year for the average facility would be an understatement.  My observation back in the early 2000s that this was going to be a battle for share-of-golfer is playing out in spades in an oversupplied, slightly declining category in most every US market.  Share battles require intelligent marketing and intelligent pricing strategies, both of which continue to be in relatively short supply in our industry.

We can report however on how the small microcosm of our Sharper Edge Marketing clients are faring and share some of the topline learnings we’re gleaning from that non-projectable and non-representative portfolio of clients.  On total revenue, as a group they were off 1% comprised of a 2% decline in rate and a 1% increase in rounds played.  What makes that performance noteworthy however is that we were able to accomplish that in collective geographies which saw a 7% decline in Capacity Rounds for the year.  This produced gains in Utilization (+5 pts to 58%) and Revenue-per-Available-Round (up $1.50 or 6% to $28).  On the customer franchise side, there were positives and negatives.  The portfolio’s average unique customer count increased on average by 1% to 4.6K golfers per 18 holes.  Average annual spending per tracked customer dropped by 4% to $190 primarily comprised of a drop in transactions vs. transaction per visit.  Retention continues to be a challenge even for our clients as this key benchmark held relatively steady at 33% despite our increased frequency of communication via newsletters and targeted email messages and offers.  Their churn performance as a group continued to be a bright spot with churn ratios of 1.1:1 in customers and 1.2:1 in dollars (in other words, for every 100 customers that didn’t return in 2011, they attracted 120 new customers that didn’t play the facility in 2010).  The continuing challenge is a spending decline among retained customers although we don’t know if they’re reducing golf spending overall or giving a higher share to competitors.  The other bright spot among our portfolio is significantly improved figures for email collection among retained, defectors and new customers all in excess of 50% across the board.  This seems to substantiate our assertion that management focus on reliable software tools and enforcing employee compliance can move this metric fairly easily and e! fficiently.  While I can’t characterize our success as “world-beating,” the SEM client portfolio and our collective marketing efforts in 2011 beat the market on most key measures after adjusting for weather impact.

We also completed a number of our Voice of the Local Golfer surveys in 2011 and saw very little movement in golfer opinions on what matters in course selection, barriers to more frequent play and price-sensitivity.  The average golfer has relatively simple wants of good conditioning (not great or pristine, just good turf) and good value (usually one price range below what the going weekend market rate is).  They continue to have, on average, 7-9 courses in their rotation with their primary facility garnering roughly a 25-40% share of annual rounds.  We didn’t see a lot of movement in the use of 3rd party providers or an increased number of pure price shoppers which is encouraging.  With almost boring consistency, the key barriers to more play are time, money and “no one to play with” (this surprises me a little since I would think that skill level would be the next logical barrier).  The good news is that the barriers are a relatively fixed and stable target; the bad news is that while they’re sitting there static like a golf ball on the tee, we can’t seem to make solid contact on addressing any of them.

The private club sector continues to struggle although it appears that the majority of those defecting from the private ranks have either already left or are on the waiting lists to get out.  There have been several reports recently of clubs that were purchased back by their members finding stabilization in finances and starting to see increased new member activity (most of them sans initiation fee or, like several of the former Bonita Bay clubs, at a 50% discount and extended terms vs. the legacy members).  If there’s any reality in these reports, that could potentially benefit rounds played in 2012 and beyond as I and others have opined that the transformation of a golfer from private to public probably costs in the range of 20-25 rds/yr per golfer as they transition from the fixed cost to the variable cost of golf world.  I still see a continued reduction however in the number of private clubs in 2012 and beyond to align with the smaller private golfer base resulting from this significant economic and employment correction in the US economy.

The final trend we’ve been watching on the facility side is the increasing number of municipalities that are having to rethink their economic structure and also consider alternative (read outsourced) operational structures.  A number have successfully petitioned to be reclassified back from Enterprise Funds (self-supporting) to entities covered under the municipality umbrella while others are petitioning for reduced fees from the municipality which, in some cases, have escalated significantly over the years without any commensurate increase in services provided.  This will most likely be a boon for the established management companies with existing municipal portfolios over the long-term as the economic reality sets in that many municipalities are encumbered in employment and work rules which need to be reconsidered in this new economy.  On the other hand, depending on the outcome of the Ohio State Supreme Court ruling looming regarding tax-exempt status when run by a for-profit management company, that pendulum could swing back fairly quickly.

Golf facility technology service providers and the march of digital/social media.

The big news in this sector in 2011 was the relative lack of news.  Starting with the Point-of-Sale (PoS) providers, we saw no major shifts in either share position or enhancement of the existing technology.  We worked closely (albeit not rapidly) with one major PoS provider in the 2nd half of 2011 to bring the benefits of customer-to-transaction ties to one of their software products which we anticipate will be announced at the upcoming PGA Merchandise Show.  FORE! continued to make some incremental improvements to the marketing capabilities of their software which saw success among those clients actually using the capabilities during the 2011 season but alas, like we also see among clients and prospects, only a small portion of operators have the perseverance to buy the services, ensure that they’re executed and then track the results and make refinements on the back end.  The encouraging news is that those who did experienced gains in 2011 in revenue, rounds and contact breadth and quality (all 2-5% of them).  The discouraging news is that the adoption rate continues to move at a pace that can only be described as “glacial.”  The one titillating piece of information being traded verbally in the back half of the year was that GolfNow was in the market to buy a PoS company.  Rumor has it that they made a run at EZLinks and also, more recently, IBS but our sources say neither of those inquiries resulted in any potential near-term deal.  If GolfNow does figure out how to add PoS capabilities to their arsenal, it will set up an interesting showdown with Active Networks and also give the remaining pureplay PoS providers a new headache to deal with.

While on the GolfNow storyline, it also appears both organizationally and strategy-wise that they’re making some significant shifts coming out of 2011.  On the organization side, based on the number of LinkedIn status changes that I’ve been invited to by former GolfNow sales and territory managers, there have been quite a few departures by the veterans in the field in the last quarter.  Word is that GolfNow is narrowing the barter options and increasing the table stakes which is putting these legacy field reps in the challenging position of having to renegotiate a number of existing agreements and that’s being met with moderate to stiff resistance.  Hence the mutual agreement that they need to move on and GolfNow needs some new blood in the field to try and sell the increasingly demanding new structure.  I like the simplification of the number of deals being offered  but there’s still those nagging points of GolfNow wanting (make that “requiring”) more inventory in 2012 on their site and that small issue of barter vs. fixed fee for services that will continue on into the new year.  My guess is that the twin forces of slowing new customer acquisition and increasing demands by Comcast to grow the business are putting the Orlando crew in a challenging spot and these adjustments are their attempt to navigate the potential 2012 whitewater.  Two interesting side stories on the yield management front and 3rd party tee times via the web are that Brett Darrow (former CypressGolf founder who sold to GolfNow) is back in circulation with the expiration of his non-compete and, separately, we are privy to multiple plans of facility “co-ops” which are being considered as an alternative to the barter-only current options moving into 2012.  I can’t comment any further than that but I suspect when I write this column at the end of 2012 that we’ll have several attempts and the result of facility owner/operators within sel! ect markets seeking to better control their destiny and create more equitable revenue share through an alternative model.

The other intriguing development on the technology side in 2011 is the continued slow but steady march of digital marketing apps in the golf industry.  While Andrew Wood and other “revolutionaries” cry that the world has already moved to the next level of digital connections (social, text, mobile etc.), we’re not seeing it play out in reality yet in the golf industry.  We are not, however, ignoring this future component of the marketing mix with Stuart and Harvey working independently with an early-stage mobile app developer who is both getting an education in the golf industry but is also showing some good initial numbers in their test deployment which we’re monitoring.  It would seem to me that text, mobile (phone, iPad etc.) has potential in our industry but will be more relevant initially to the 18-34 crowd (whom we need to re-engage by the way) and will gain momentum at a much slower pace than technology in other industries (like entertainment, shopping etc.).  That said, it’s in our future, we just need to figure out the transition, timing and how much to invest in making this leap at the individual facility level.

Golf equipment manufacturers. 

It was an unusually interesting year on the golf equipment manufacturers side.  The three major events of the year were the TMaG gambit on white drivers as the 2011 technology breakthrough, the sale of Acushnet and Callaway’s change in leadership and strategy amidst disappointing results.  As I outlined in the key metrics summary, it will turn out to be a good year overall for the equipment segment compared to 2010.  Within that positive story however, there are clear winners and losers.  On the winning side, TMaG clearly cleaned up this year dominating the drivers subsegment with their bold bet on white as an arresting consumer appeal concept backed up by strong PGA TOUR endorsement early in the year which combined to propel them to success.  While I don’t have any definitive figures on how much of their growth was incremental category sales vs. “share shift,” it would appear that they took much of their gains in drivers from Callaway’s hide while Acushnet most likely held their own with solid new offerings and steady execution which is their trademark.  Adams Golf also appeared to hold their own during the rising tide although they’re not big enough to meaningfully impact their subsegments (perhaps with the exception of the hybrids microsegment) much either way.

The offering and sale of Acushnet went incredibly quickly and smoothly although it didn’t change hands at as high a rate as might have been possible if Fortune Brands had given it more time to pursue suitors and less stringent requirements on a closing date.  OTR reader and business associate Casey Alexander gets points for correctly predicting that it would be a non-US buyer (he even called Asia correctly) and most likely not a legacy player in the golf equipment industry.  Fortune Brands got the exit they wanted at a reasonable valuation (although the revenue and value growth accounts during their ownership tenure doesn’t take into account the bath they took on the Cobra transaction in & out) and they avoided all the potential anti-trust and divestiture issues that would have come along with any purchase by a sizeable current legacy player in the industry.  As of this writing, it doesn’t appear that they’ve suffered any major distribution losses as a result of the transaction and shares within their segments didn’t show any losses amidst the process and post-new ownership.

The Callaway regime change is still a work-in-progress.  With the resignation of George Fellows as CEO at the end of calendar Q2 accompanied by poor 1st half results, the company finally ran out of forgiveness for unfulfilled promises of cost savings and operational efficiencies that never materialized.  Outside the short-term hit of severance, the switch from Fellows to Board member Tony Thornley immediately saves $1M+/yr, the difference between Fellows compensation package and Thornley’s “Steve Jobs” approach to compensation of $1 in salary and the rest in stock.   Analyst Casey Alexander, who follows the company closely, likes what he sees early on in Thornley’s approach with immediate headcount reductions at the management level that were projected to account for nearly half of the $50M in expense reductions in 2011 (that’s not counting the $8M re-org charges incurred in Q2 timed with Mr. Fellows resignation, guess where the bulk of that went?).  It will be interesting to see how and where the proposed $25M in additional marketing spending will be invested in 2012 with the latest chapter in that story being last week’s announcement by Callaway that Justin Timberlake will be Callaway’s new Creative Director.  We’ll see where that goes, I think on the surface that has about a 50/50 chance of succeeding in any meaningful way because they need basic marketing blocking and tackling, not a big PR show but if Thornley can efficiently augment the Justin Timberlake show with some basics in Consumer Relationship Management (CRM), then he could potentially pull this off.  I liken this to the TMaG white technology play in 2011, it’s a gamble and will either succeed famously or completely flame out.  In the meantime, marketing strategies and ramping up investments take time so I fully anticipate that Callaway’s competitors will have another season of opportunity before the Carlsbad company regains its footing in! the marketplace to any considerable degree.

Reader feedback:
We received several comments on the previous issue titled “Nicklaus Shanks Growth of Game Shot” with most agreeing that Jack is stepping slightly outside of his experience and knowledge area here and risks being co-opted by the industry associations if he’s not careful.  The next interesting point in the discussion will be his keynote address at the PGA Merchandise show in support of the Golf 2.0 initiative.  I guarantee I’ll be in attendance to see what support and figures get presented and maybe ask a question or two if given the opportunity.

Upcoming Speaking/Writing Engagements:
The State of the Industry presentations have now been scheduled with our hosts from the International Network of Golf (ING).  The annual gathering(s) of the faithful will be on Friday (1/27/12) from 10:30-11:30AM and 3:30-4:30PM (both sessions will also have a follow-on 30 minutes for questions/discussion).  We sent out the initial “Save the Date” announcement in the December Pellucid Perspective issue email but for our OTR subscribers who missed it, this is your personal invitation.  We’ve currently gotten 10-20 RSVPs and have space for a combined 200-225 between the two sessions so get your RSVP (email This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ) in if you’re going to be at the show and planning to attend and participate.

There’s nothing new to report for those of you who are only going to the Golf Industry Show in Las Vegas in February 2012.  I wouldn’t hold out much hope of that happening but we haven’t yet thrown in the towel.  We may once again videotape the Orlando session and then offer that via the Web to those attending the GIS.  Stay tuned.

The Pellucid Perspective’s December issue was published on 12/16/11.  The leading articles in page views through last week were Jim Dunlap’s update article on the continuing saga of the Ohio challenge to munis tax-exempt status when being run by for-profit management companies and Harvey Silverman’s best-applied practices article on how our clients and other facilities are combating no-shows and recovering previously lost revenue.  Coming in 3rd was Jim Koppenhaver’s poke back at the Legendary Marketing folks’ video in his article titled “Ignoring Weather Impact, a Cunningly Clueless Concept.”  For those of you who, for some reason or another, didn’t get the latest issue or haven’t had time to read it yet, here’s a link to that NXTBook: www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201112

We have sponsorship opportunities for The Pellucid Perspective.  Currently we’re having discussions for the upcoming period of Jan-Jun 2012 at initial investment levels as low as $5K for six months for 1 half-page ad per issue.  For any of you interested in exploring further, contact Jim Dunlap ( This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or 760-212-3714).

Product News:
For those of you who didn’t make it this far in the last issue, Pellucid (finally) launched in November the much-awaited web-delivered, real-time, facility-level Weather Impact service called Cognilogic, developed in conjunction with Edgehill Golf Advisors.  We have initial subscribers and at this point they’re using their new service to factor historical weather and the 10-year Norm into their 2012 plans.  This new service provides subscribers facility-level, annual unlimited, real-time access to weather impact for the current month-to-date, year-to-date and historical comparative periods.  Given that many operators are in the process of analyzing the 2011 season and beginning plans for 2012, we’re offering an early-adopter program which includes the year-end summaries for both 2011 and 2012 bookending the 12 monthly reports for 2012 to subscribers prior to 1/15/12.  If you’re interested in information on pricing and the deliverable, contact either Stuart Lindsay ( This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ) or Jim Koppenhaver.  We’re anticipating being able to announce prior to the PGA Merchandise Show our expanded Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) and Customer Franchise Analysis (CFA) reports via a 2nd Point-of-Sale (PoS) provider beyond our initial capability with FORE! Reservations.  This will integrate our Weather Impact information with the rounds and revenue information from the PoS system to provide the weather-adjusted key metrics of Utilization and RevpAR as well as providing a series of comparative reports on rounds by day-of-week, department revenue comparisons for this year vs. last year periods and comparative item detail reports (which we’ve found particularly useful in helping clients quantify the economic upside/downside of their barter relationships with 3rd party internet tee time providers).

For more information or to order any of Pellucid’s products, please contact Jim Koppenhaver at 847.808.7651 or This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or visit our website.  In closing, we’d like to take this opportunity to thank all of our OTR subscribers and clients for their support in 2011 and we offer our wishes for a better, more prosperous 2012 professionally and a healthy and happy personal New Year.

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