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Aug OtR: We Know Considerably More in Jul '21 than Jul '20

Volume 20 Issue 08

July '21 Industry Health Metrics vs. July '20:
We Know Considerably More This Year

This time last year we were on the cusp on an unprecedented surge in both demand (rounds) and participation (new & returning golfers) but we had limited breadth of visibility to either see it coming or track it during the surge.  This led to Pellucid's decision in January '21 to launch our Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) so that, during and at the end of the '21 season, our clients and Pellucid would know more of the key metrics, the trendlines and the forecast en route to December.  Thanks to our merry little band of intrepid and independent thinking owner/operators (AKA the GMRC Charter Members), we know considerably more this July than past, some of which I'll share with this broader audience tuned into the Pellucid channel (to get the full picture, you'll have to join our merry little band for the princely sum of...$500/yr per facility).  


The question before us in July '20 was, "How much of a rebound will we get as one of the few "approved recreational activities" during COVID?"  The question in July of '21 is "How much of the rounds, revenue and participant surge can we retain as social restrictions due to COVID relax?" (complicated slightly by the unforeseen Delta strain emergence)  Toward that end, we'll take a past, present and future perspective on what we know using the GMRC and our 7 KPIs, courtesy of the national-aggregated results of our Charter Members:

  • What we knew in July '20 - Rounds were up 20% vs. '19 for the month (first month of the COVID "bounce"), that brought the Year-to-Date figure into positive territory (+3%) as well
  • What we know in July '21 - As we lap the COVID surge months from '20, rounds are proving resilient, golf revenue gains are even stronger and, coupled with the flat weather impact, Utilization and Revenue-per-Available Round (RevpAR) are equally robust.  We also know that Rate-per-Played Round is stronger and the Discount Rate (Achieved Avg. Greens Fee compared to Peak GF Rate) is up modestly (that's a positive indicator, I'll explain in the article)
  • What we're projecting in rounds demand for the balance of '21 - I'll share elements of Pellucid/Edgehill's crystal ball, where we think the year end rounds number will land and what the odds are currently for Jim winning his Scott/Stuart bet (Jim's side is we fall short of last year's 493M rounds, right now the odds are favoring Scott/Stuart)
You can get the rest of the story by... Click Here
(all can be previewed and purchased at Pellucid's website)
Golf Market Research Center (GMRC)
 We're now in the Charter Member subscription period (6/1-9/15). Facilities subscribing to GMRC ($500/yr, $450 for NGCOA members) during this period get the following value-added services as part of the "bundle":
OtR annual subscription (you can read the rest of this article!)
Cognilogic Weather Impact: Historical facility-specific Golf Playable Hours & Capacity Rounds, accessible daily via web portal
Cognilogic Foresight: 60 day forecast of Capacity Rounds including comparison to prior year, the 10-year norm and select forecast facts (i.e. hi/lo temp, precipitation amount etc.), accessible daily via web portal
GMRC program revshare: Set up as a cooperative, Charter Members will get annual discounts on their service based on the number of participants and revenue through GMRC in Year 2 and beyond
Three ways to get more information on the program:
By viewing the 18 minute webinar demo by yours truly (you have to register to view the video, don't worry, you're not signing up for anything, we just want to know who's viewing our content as the quid pro quo)
By This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  me
Pellucid Publications Membership
Most comprehensive coverage & detail - Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership for $495/yr. Annual subscribers get access to the following:
Outside the Ropes monthly digital newsletter
Annual State of the Industry report portfolio (PowerPoint presentation, PDF commentary report, access to Jim/Stuart video of presentation)
Geographic Weather Impact Tracking (US, 45 regions, 61 markets) or Cognilogic for Golf Playable Hours/Capacity Rounds for individual facilities
Top 25 US Golf Markets Ranking Scorecard (25+ dimensions, scoring and ranking for largest 25 markets) or Golf Local Market Analysis data workbook for up to 3 draw areas for individual facilities
National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard (expanded data and tables underlying this issue's summary figures) 
Outside the Ropes
12 monthly issues for $130/yr with a money-back guarantee if you're not satisfied at any time during your subscription. Subscribers also get access to the historical archive of past issues (50+) via the members-only section of the Pellucid website. Single Issues too!

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