Dec Weather Impact: Strong Finish Should Help Full Season Markets
December Golf Weather Impact:
Strong Finish Should Help Full Season Markets
December's weather impact turned in a 2nd consecutive month of gains as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were up 8%. That puts the year end finish in positive territory (fractionally) at +0.4%. YtD regional GPH breadth finished unfavorable at 1:2 with 10 favorable regions countered by 20 unfavorable regions (with 15 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at weather impact performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, both weekparts (weekday vs. weekend) finished essentially flat but with some variance evident when we go to individual days analysis (Mon-Sun). The Year-End (YE) forecast settled at -4% to the 10-year average.
Played Rounds for November published by Golf Datatech registered a 4th consecutive month of Utilization gain with rounds demand up 10% which also handily beat the positive GPH results. For the YtD period, rounds continue slightly up beating basically flat weather through 11 months. As always, beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization Rates among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid's designated Top 25 markets) as outlined in your monthly Excel report.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "December weather gains were seen in a number of the extended-season regions (i.e. SE Coast North, SE Inland, Gulf Coast, Texas) but not all got the December dividend. The December Utilization gain is the optimal scenario with an up in rounds exceeding the positive weather "comp". The other encouraging news in the market-level Utilization is that the YE breadth figure finished positive (4:1 to gains vs. declines) although the majority of markets ended in neutral territory (42 of 61). Speaking of market performance, Minneapolis and Washington DC will likely end up as the leading gainers for the year and, encouragingly, it doesn't appear that any of our Top 25 markets will register a significant (>2 pts) Utilization lag. In all, it's a solid finish "leaning positive" but with the majority result/opinion still being in the neutral zone of +/-2 percent/points across the markets that matter (with apologies to the non-Top 25 market geographies). We'll analyze this in more detail in our upcoming State of the Industry presentation in Orlando on Thursday 1/23 from 10:30AM-12PM, hope to see you there."
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors.