July weather impact - Steady-as-she-goes for month, YtD

July weather was a 2^nd consecutive “slight headwind” month registering -2% vs. Year Ago (YA) for Golf Playable Hours at the national level.  That had minimal impact on the Year-to-Date figure still resting in positive territory at +1% (neutral in our lexicon) after 7 months which, on average, represents ~60% of annual rounds nationally.  The YtD regional breadth metric remained favorable at a 2:1 ratio comprised of 21 favorable regions vs. 13 unfavorables and 11 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%).

National Played Rounds for June, as published by Circana (the artist formerly known as Golf Datatech), came in flat (+1%) at the All Facilities level.  The All Facilities flat figure beat last month’s GPH decline (-3%) producing a Utilization gain for the month while the YtD figure rose into positive territory at +1 pt vs. YA.

Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, "Neutral weather is one of two preferred summer month scenarios (the other being “up”) and, given the amount of rounds volume in play, flat extends the match and takes another large month off the table for the downside scenario.  On a monthly, non-weighted tally, we’ve now notched 3 birdie months (positive GPH) and 3 pars (neutral) against only 1 bogey (negative) to get to the relatively flat weather YtD.  Looking at partner AccuWeather’s full-year forecast applied to our proprietary GPH rules, it’s still showing a slight up after factoring in the latest July results and incorporating rest-of-year rounds contribution weighting.  Through the lens of our 45 weather-based regions for the month, Gulf Coast (states of LA/MS/AL) had the strongest tailwind (+23%) while Desert SW (Phoenix & surrounds) faced the strongest headwind (-19%).  At the 61 Golf Datatech markets-level for the month, focusing on our Top 25 golf markets, Tampa had a gale-force tailwind (+47%, against unusually depressed ’25 though) while Phoenix (again) faced the most weather resistance (-19%).  Looking back at June Utilization results at the 61-market level (combining the Datatech rounds and Pellucid GPH values) and applying a screen for the Top 25 markets, the climate-beating crown went to Dallas/Ft Worth with a 25 pt Utilization gain (rounds gain of 8% vs. GPH decline of 25%) while San Fran (again) had the largest weather lag with a Utilization decline of -9 pts (rds decline of 1% against GPH favorability of 15%).  Looking at my June Utilization prediction, I was again too conservative calling for flat Utilization whereas the 1% gain in rounds produced a 3 pt gain for the month.  For the July “call”, I’m going to “go neutral” which would have rounds between flat and -3%; we’ll see if I’m too bearish once again or if we see the first significant rounds softening of the year as prices continue to stay firm/climb.”

Understanding weather impact on performance down to individual facility level is at the core of our GMRC initiative as we build out the participant base in size, geographic distribution (24 markets now with at least 1 participant) and representation across the Public-Regulation length facility groups (Premium, Value, Price).  GMRC subscribers have the ability to see their monthly performance in comparative reports the day the month closes. We're always looking for more subscribers to give us either more market breadth or bigger samples in the markets where we have current participants.  We know from our visibility to the Golf Revenue numbers that courses are generally flush with cash (we've also seen all the public domain articles on renovations, massive CapEx spending etc. to corroborate) so we'd hazard a guess that the $500 investment decision isn't being hampered by lack of funds.  Program participants have been able to view graphic, single page monthly trend reports for Rounds and Utilization from '19-'24 as well as having a 7 measure KPI single page report for any month and YtD period for which they entered data.  The GMRC gives you visibility to your Market Profile and, after you enter your Rounds, Golf Revenue and Peak Season GF Rate by month, to immediately see your results through our comparative reports with integrated weather impact.  So how do you "get in on the action"?  Glad you asked...

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