December weather registered a 3rd consecutive month of decline registering -7% vs. Year Ago (YA) for Golf Playable Hours at the national level. That produced a -2% result to close out the year which we’ve typically characterized as in the range of “flat”. The YtD regional breadth metric was similarly flat closing at a 1:1 ratio comprised of 22 favorable regions vs. 16 unfavorables with 7 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%). Continuing with YtD results and looking at the 61 Datatech markets’ GPH results, breadth was unchanged to close the year at 1:2 with 17 markets having favorable weather against 32 unfavorables and 12 in the neutral zone.
National Played Rounds for November, as published by Circana (the artist formerly known as Golf Datatech), showed a surprising increase of 3% at the All Facilities level. Comparing back to last month’s GPH results (-8%), that combination produced a 2nd consecutive significant gain in Utilization +8 pts for the month (surprising strength).
Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, "December closes out the year on a weather whimper but, as only one month against 11 previous in the books, doesn’t change the outcome of basically a flat weather year of offsetting favorability/unfavorability at the 45 Pellucid weather region level. Looking at the regional map for the current month, unfortunately our 12-month season markets (SE Coast, TX, Desert SW, CA Coast) that rely on their counter-seasonal business didn’t have a positive weather outcome as a group. At the 61 Golf Datatech markets-level for the month, focusing on our Top 25 golf markets, Atlanta was the weather winner at +8% while San Fran and LA on the West Coast vied for worst weather, both down 11%. Looking back at November Utilization results at the 61-market level, applying a screen for key rounds and 12-months season markets, Orlando was the standout at +4 pts from a 12% increase in rounds vs. an only 2% increase in GPH. On the flipside, Orange County, San Diego (unusual) and Miami had declines of 5 pts or more through different combinations of rounds and GPH results. Looking at November Utilization, I completely whiffed in calling rounds down following weather (but shallower) but our GMRC portfolio’s results trended similarly so “you gotta’ believe.” For my December call, I’m going to go with flat rounds which would be another Utilization gain against the -7% GPH results above; we’ll see if I can redeem myself in the final round of the year’s monthly rounds forecast lottery.”
Understanding weather impact on performance down to individual facility level is at the core of our GMRC initiative as we build out the participant base in size, geographic distribution (24 markets now with at least 1 participant) and representation across the Public-Regulation length facility groups (Premium, Value, Price). GMRC subscribers have the ability to see their monthly performance in comparative reports the day the month closes. We're always looking for more subscribers to give us either more market breadth or bigger samples in the markets where we have current participants. We know from our visibility to the Golf Revenue numbers that courses are generally flush with cash (we've also seen all the public domain articles on renovations, massive CapEx spending etc. to corroborate) so we'd hazard a guess that the $500 investment decision isn't being hampered by lack of funds. Program participants have been able to view graphic, single page monthly trend reports for Rounds and Utilization from '19-'24 as well as having a 7 measure KPI single page report for any month and YtD period for which they entered data. The GMRC gives you visibility to your Market Profile and, after you enter your Rounds, Golf Revenue and Peak Season GF Rate by month, to immediately see your results through our comparative reports with integrated weather impact. So how do you "get in on the action"? Glad you asked...
- You can email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
, with questions or to subscribe (see below for benefits) and get started by inputting your information through the current month
- If you'd like more information:
- Watch the 18 minute GoToWebinar recording of the program overview and a demonstration of the portal and reports (fill in your name and email and it will open the video link; you're not signing up for anything)
Here's the details on what you get in the current promo deal:
- GMRC Market profile (golfers, supply/mix/demand balance, Utilization etc.)
- Monthly trends report (Rounds & Utilization, any month and YtD '19-'21)
- KPI Scorecard (7 KPIs for month & YtD, single page, Year Ago comparisons)
- Cognilogic (historical facility-specific Golf Playable Hours and Capacity Rounds, normally sold as separate service at $180/yr) and
- Foresight (brand new, facility-level 60-day Capacity Rounds forecast and key weather variables used to produce it, normally sold separately at $360/yr)
- National Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard and commentary outlining the change in the size of the golfer base, the demographics (not as much additional diversity as advertised by the industry but expanding) and involvement levels (sold separately for $199)
- We think this package of services including GMRC at $500/yr ($450 for NGCOA members) is a great value and timely for assessing your ’25 performance and how it compares to the COVID surge years of ’20-‘22
Final cherry-on-top, GMRC is a product in the NGCOA SmartBuy program so there's a member benefit (10% discount) for the annual subscription.
Sincerely,
Jim Koppenhaver
