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Sep Weather, Aug Util; steady, solid results against strong '20 "comps"

 
Golf Weather Impact:
September GPH flat nationally,
August Utilization lags tough "comp" month
True Club

September GPH was unusually flat for one of our "shoulder season" months registering +1% vs. Year-Ago (YA).  That kept the Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH figure at -1% vs. YA.  Regional breadth remained negative for the year at 1:2 with 10 favorable regions vs. 19 unfavorables rounded out by 16 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%).   Subscribers to either the Pellucid Publications Membership or the Geographic Weather Impact report get the 45 regional breakdowns, the 61 markets figures, the day-of-week weather impact and the Year-End National GPH forecast figure as well as our full commentary on the results every month.

Played Rounds for August as published by Golf Datatech also struggled against last year's strong results registering -7% (but which is still 13% above Aug '19).  According to Datatech, the Public sector "lost less" (-7%) sector vs. Private (-9%), much of which is likely to Private's strength in '20 so they have a tougher comp to beat.  To the critical question of how much weather impacted our flat rounds result, recall that the previously-reported August GPH was -5% so the slightly larger rounds decline yields a Utilization loss of 2 points pretty much following the July results.

Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, "In a rare feat for rounds projections, I was "calling" August -7.5% vs. '20 which was pretty dead on.  My call for the months in the balance of the year is for continued and increasing erosion vs. the elevated '20 H2 results so we'll see if my prowess (luck) holds up.  We usually see more variance in GPH in the shoulder season months of Sep-Nov but we'll take the neutral result while acknowledging that flat national still has considerable ups and downs (which you know because you have the supporting regional results which ranged from +30% (So. FL) to -15% (OH Valley Central or Columbus area)).  Looking back to last month for Utilization, we saw the rounds decline along with the unfavorable weather so, despite COVID, declining GPH continues to exert gravitational pull on demand.  The good news is that, for YtD Utilization across the 61 tracked markets, we're still showing very strong positive breadth with 44 markets up against only 3 markets down (Minneapolis, Sarasota and the state of NE) or a 14:1 positive breadth ratio.  Due to the diligence of our Golf Market Research Center Charter Members, we've already seen the preview of the September results for rounds and revenue and the "preview" is that it's stronger than I had anticipated against last year's elevated base (and similar to the GPH results so I can pretty confidently predict flat Utilization for September)."

  • Speaking of the GMRC and the ability for courses to see their monthly performance in comparative reports the day the month closes, you've missed the Charter Membership period but we're now offering a Fall Promo which bundles the GMRC performance reports with our weather services for all subscribers between now and 11/1/21.  We're also still offering a free 2-wk trial of the GMRC tool for those who missed the 2-month window while we were in development of the tool back in April-May.  Program participants have been able to view single page, comparative monthly periods for Rounds and Utilization from '19-'21 as well as having a 7 measure KPI single page report for any month and YtD period for which they entered data.  The GMRC gives you visibility to your Market Profile and, after you enter your Rounds, Golf Revenue and Peak Season GF Rate by month, to immediately see your results through our comparative reports with integrated weather impact.  So how do you "get in on the action"?  Glad you asked...

    You can email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , provide your facility(ies) name and address and ask for registration instructions.  We'll get you authorized as the admin for that facility and send a User's Guide in 24-48 hours and you'll be set
  • If you'd like more information you have two options:
    • Watch the 18 minute GoToWebinar recording of the program overview and a demonstration of the portal and reports (fill in your name and email and it will open the video link; you're not signing up for anything)
    • Review the 2-pg program overview (Download Here)

Here's the details on what you get in the Fall Promo:

  • GMRC Market profile (golfers, supply/mix/demand balance, Utilization etc.)

  •  Monthly trends report (Rounds & Utilization, any month and YtD '19-'21)

  • KPI Scorecard (7 KPIs for month & YtD, single page, Year Ago comparisons)

  • Cognilogic (historical facility-specific Golf Playable Hours and Capacity Rounds, normally sold as separate service at $180/yr) and

  • Foresight (brand new, facility-level 60-day Capacity Rounds forecast and key weather variables used to produce it, normally sold separately at $360/yr)

  • We think this package of services including GMRC at $500/yr ($450 for NGCOA members) is a great value and timely for assessing '21's performance and beginning your '22 planning

Final cherry-on-top, GMRC is a product in the NGCOA SmartBuy program so there's a member benefit (10% discount) for the annual subscription.

You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid's Online Store.

Sincerely,
Jim Koppenhaver