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Jul weather melts GPH, Jun Utilization beats down weather

 

Golf Weather Impact:

July Scorcher Melts GPH Nationally

True Club

July weather results delivered a change of unusual magnitude as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) declined 4% vs. Year-Ago (YA).  We usually don’t see that much variance in mid-season unless there’s considerable storms and rain but this year the abnormal heat hit the radar.  Given the YtD deficit, this “smaller loss” actually slightly improved the Year-to-Date (YtD) deficit to -8% (from June’s -9% level).  Regional breadth YtD continued negative at 1:18 with only 2 favorable regions vs. 35 unfavorables and 8 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%).  Subscribers to either the Pellucid Publications Membership or the Geographic Weather Impact report get the 45 regional breakdowns, the 61 markets figures, the day-of-week weather impact and the Year-End National GPH forecast figure as well as our full commentary on the results every month.

Played Rounds for June as published by Golf Datatech were a pleasant surprise at +3% which broke the “rounds follow weather” pattern in recent months.  According to Datatech, Private led the increase at +4% compared to Public which was +3%.  To the critical question of how much weather impacted the significant rounds decline, recall that the previously-reported June GPH drop was -3% so Utilization provides the "truth" of how we performed reflected in the +3-point change returning to our earlier season pattern of Utilization gains.

Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, "July’s weather impact reflects the national headline story for much of the month which was unusually high and prolonged heat across many US markets (Texas in particular took an unusual hit for July).  While our weather rules don’t make a distinction between “warmer than usual” weather within our Playable Hours range, it does have “thermocouples” for both absolute temperature and heat index/feels like which were triggered in July.  Looking back at June Utilization to see how we fared vs. the modestly down weather, quite a few markets posted gains for the month resulting in the +3 points gain at the national level.  Diving deeper into the market-level leaders & laggards for Utilization June YtD, Minneapolis, Miami and Dallas continue atop the leaderboard (but they all get there different ways between rounds and GPH; some are winning ugly) while NYC anchors the Laggards list followed by Washington DC and Columbus OH (again, you’ll see they all have different demand/weather dynamics, check it out in the attached workbook).  Returning to the July weather, we’ve compiled the preliminary results from our Golf Market Research Center and that portfolio of courses registered a gain in both rounds and revenue against even worse weather (due to the geographic distribution of our early adopters) so we’re going to have to go with a call for Utilization up 2-5 points for July despite the weather carnage.  Our GMRC subscribers already know their weather-adjusted July performance as well as the 60-day forecast for Capacity Rounds for their facility; you could too (hint, hint)."

Speaking of the GMRC and the ability for courses to see their monthly performance in comparative reports the day the month closes, we're still offering a free 2-wk trial of the tool.  We know from our visibility to the Golf Revenue numbers that courses are generally flush with cash (we've also seen all the public domain articles on renovations, massive CapEx spending etc. to corroborate) so we'd hazard a guess that the $500 investment decision isn't being hampered by lack of funds.  Program participants have been able to view graphic, single page monthly trend reports for Rounds and Utilization from '19-'22 as well as having a 7 measure KPI single page report for any month and YtD period for which they entered data.  The GMRC gives you visibility to your Market Profile and, after you enter your Rounds, Golf Revenue and Peak Season GF Rate by month, to immediately see your results through our comparative reports with integrated weather impact.  So how do you "get in on the action"?  Glad you asked...

You can email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , to subscribe (see below for benefits) and get started by inputting your information through th current month or if you'd like to engage in the 2-wk trial

If you'd like more information you have two options:
  • Watch the 18 minute GoToWebinar recording of the program overview and a demonstration of the portal and reports (fill in your name and email and it will open the video link; you're not signing up for anything)
  • Review the 2-pg program overview (Download Here) 

Here's the details on what you get in the current promo deal:

  • GMRC Market profile (golfers, supply/mix/demand balance, Utilization etc.)
  • Monthly trends report (Rounds & Utilization, any month and YtD '19-'21)
  • KPI Scorecard (7 KPIs for month & YtD, single page, Year Ago comparisons)
  • Cognilogic (historical facility-specific Golf Playable Hours and Capacity Rounds, normally sold as separate service at $180/yr) and
  • Foresight (brand new, facility-level 60-day Capacity Rounds forecast and key weather variables used to produce it, normally sold separately at $360/yr)
  • [Just updated & added!] National Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard and commentary outlining the change in the size of the golfer base, the demographics (not as much additional diversity as advertised by the industry but expanding) and involvement levels (sold separately for $199)
  • We think this package of services including GMRC at $500/yr ($450 for NGCOA members) is a great value and timely for assessing '21's performance and beginning your '22 planning

Final cherry-on-top, GMRC is a product in the NGCOA SmartBuy program so there's a member benefit (10% discount) for the annual subscription.

You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid's Online Store.

Sincerely,
Jim Koppenhaver