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Nov. weather gale-force headwind, Oct. Utilization holds steady at 60%

 

Golf Weather Impact:
November Weather is Fierce Headwind

 
True Club

November weather was widely and significantly unfavorable as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) recorded a 19% decline vs. Year-Ago (YA).  That dragged down the YtD deficit to -6%.  Regional breadth YtD also deteriorated further to the negative now registering 1:17 with only 2 favorable regions vs. 34 unfavorables and 9 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%).  Subscribers to either the Pellucid Publications Membership or the Geographic Weather Impact report get the 45 regional breakdowns, the 61 markets figures, the day-of-week weather impact and the Year-End National GPH forecast figure as well as our full commentary on the results every month.

Played Rounds for October as published by Golf Datatech, coming in at -1%, were once again similar to our previously-reported modest GPH decline which produced a modest gain in Utilization for the month.  According to Datatech, the decline was exclusively in the Private sector (-8%) while Public eked out a small gain (+1%).  For the YtD period, Utilization manages to cling to the 60% level which represents a 1-point increase over last year.

Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, "Last month I said that the forecast suggested we weren’t going to get any late-season weather help but I didn’t foresee November being a gale-force headwind across nearly every geography.  While the small volume of business in the norther climates minimizes the impact on the full-year results, we also saw unfavorable weather among our counter-seasonal regions as well which means their peak season is off to a slow start due to Mother Nature’s November provision.  Looking back at October Utilization, we continue to revert to the pre-COVID pattern of rounds following weather resulting in Utilization stability.  As mentioned last month, it's important to note however that we’ve “stabilized” at ~ 60% Utilization level which means that, post-pandemic, we’re sustaining at an ~5 pt higher level than previously so that’s a plus.  Diving deeper into the October YtD market-level leaders & laggards for Utilization, Minneapolis and Dallas are joined on the leaderboard by St Louis, all showing 3+ point gains while Denver, Pittsburgh and Phoenix lead the “laggards” with declines of 3 pts or more.  We haven’t yet compiled the preliminary Rounds and Revenue figures from our Golf Market Research Center portfolio so it will be interesting to see if they experienced an expected double-digit decline in their results for the month following this weather result or if they’ll surprise to the upside and post parity-or-better volume/dollar figures for the month.  Our GMRC subscribers who have already input their figures know their weather-adjusted November performance as well as the 60-day forecast for Capacity Rounds for their facility; you could too (hint, hint)."

Speaking of the GMRC and the ability for courses to see their monthly performance in comparative reports the day the month closes, we're still offering a free 2-wk trial of the tool.  We know from our visibility to the Golf Revenue numbers that courses are generally flush with cash (we've also seen all the public domain articles on renovations, massive CapEx spending etc. to corroborate) so we'd hazard a guess that the $500 investment decision isn't being hampered by lack of funds.  Program participants have been able to view graphic, single page monthly trend reports for Rounds and Utilization from '19-'22 as well as having a 7 measure KPI single page report for any month and YtD period for which they entered data.  The GMRC gives you visibility to your Market Profile and, after you enter your Rounds, Golf Revenue and Peak Season GF Rate by month, to immediately see your results through our comparative reports with integrated weather impact.  So how do you "get in on the action"?  Glad you asked...

You can email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , to subscribe (see below for benefits) and get started by inputting your information through th current month or if you'd like to engage in the 2-wk trial

If you'd like more information you have two options:
  • Watch the 18 minute GoToWebinar recording of the program overview and a demonstration of the portal and reports (fill in your name and email and it will open the video link; you're not signing up for anything)
  • Review the 2-pg program overview (Download Here) 

Here's the details on what you get in the current promo deal:

  • GMRC Market profile (golfers, supply/mix/demand balance, Utilization etc.)
  • Monthly trends report (Rounds & Utilization, any month and YtD '19-'21)
  • KPI Scorecard (7 KPIs for month & YtD, single page, Year Ago comparisons)
  • Cognilogic (historical facility-specific Golf Playable Hours and Capacity Rounds, normally sold as separate service at $180/yr) and
  • Foresight (brand new, facility-level 60-day Capacity Rounds forecast and key weather variables used to produce it, normally sold separately at $360/yr)
  • National Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard and commentary outlining the change in the size of the golfer base, the demographics (not as much additional diversity as advertised by the industry but expanding) and involvement levels (sold separately for $199)
  • We think this package of services including GMRC at $500/yr ($450 for NGCOA members) is a great value and timely for assessing '21's performance and beginning your '22 planning

Final cherry-on-top, GMRC is a product in the NGCOA SmartBuy program so there's a member benefit (10% discount) for the annual subscription.

You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid's Online Store.

Sincerely,
Jim Koppenhaver