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Dec GPH is stellar, Nov Utilization caves (expected)

 
Golf Weather Impact:
December GPH crazy good,
November Utilization hits the wall
True Club

December Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were double-digit positive registering +29% vs. Year-Ago (YA).  That dragged the national Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH figure moderately higher resulting in a fractional gain for the year vs. YA (+1%).  Regional breadth finished the year neutral at 1:1 with 15 favorable regions vs. 14 unfavorables rounded out by 16 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%).  Subscribers to either the Pellucid Publications Membership or the Geographic Weather Impact report get the 45 regional breakdowns, the 61 markets figures, the day-of-week weather impact and the Year-End National GPH forecast figure as well as our full commentary on the results every month.

Played Rounds for November as published by Golf Datatech registered a fifth consecutive month of unfavorable "comps" vs. '20 and the -18% decline was more in line with our expectations back in Q3.  According to Datatech both sectors, Public and Private, suffered similar declines.  To the critical question of how much weather impacted those significant declines, recall that the previously-reported November GPH was flat so the significant rounds decline yields a third consecutive month of Utilization declines registering -11 points for the month.

Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, "Two obvious observations:  We had anticipated seeing double-digit declines vs. '20's astronomical Q4 comps (it just took longer to develop than we forecast) and none of that demand decline can be attributed to "unfavorable weather" (although we're sure that other industry orgs and observers will make some passing mention like "weather didn't help" which you now know (beforehand) is bunk).  Among our key rounds-producing regions, we saw weather strength in the Southeast (coastal & inland) and Texas while CA and the Pacific NW were all "in the red" for the month bucking the national trend.  In Utilization at the market-level for Nov. YtD, looking across our Top 25 markets, CA is the stand-out with San Francisco, San Diego and LA all showing >9 point gains.  On the other side of the coin, it appears that Minneapolis is a shoo-in for biggest loser at -7 pts (1% improvement in rounds against a 17% GPH gain, so much for taking advantage of favorable weather).  If you want to know the complete results for our 45 regions or 61 markets, you can subscribe to our Pellucid Publications Membership and they'll come to you monthly (before we release these summaries to the public as well). Given the holiday weekend, we haven't yet had the benefit of seeing the preview of our Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) subscribers Golf Revenue & Rounds results and it'll be interesting to see how the tug-of-war between a tough '20 comp number and the very favorable weather in December nets out.  We'll know that answer in the next week or so and it'll be incorporated in the SoI; our GMRC subscribers will see the summary and the markets' directional guidance by this weekend."

Speaking of the GMRC and the ability for courses to see their monthly performance in comparative reports the day the month closes, we're still offering a free 2-wk trial of the tool.  We know from our visibility to the Golf Revenue numbers that courses are generally flush with cash (we've also seen all the public domain articles on renovations, massive CapEx spending etc. to corroborate) so we'd hazard a guess that the $500 investment decision isn't being hampered by lack of funds.  Program participants have been able to view graphic, single page monthly trend reports for Rounds and Utilization from '19-'21 as well as having a 7 measure KPI single page report for any month and YtD period for which they entered data.  The GMRC gives you visibility to your Market Profile and, after you enter your Rounds, Golf Revenue and Peak Season GF Rate by month, to immediately see your results through our comparative reports with integrated weather impact.  So how do you "get in on the action"?  Glad you asked...

You can email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , provide your facility(ies) name and address and ask for registration instructions.  We'll get you authorized as the admin for that facility and send a User's Guide in 24-48 hours and you'll be set

If you'd like more information you have two options:
  • Watch the 18 minute GoToWebinar recording of the program overview and a demonstration of the portal and reports (fill in your name and email and it will open the video link; you're not signing up for anything)
  • Review the 2-pg program overview (Download Here)

Here's the details on what you get in the Fall Promo:

  • GMRC Market profile (golfers, supply/mix/demand balance, Utilization etc.)
  •  Monthly trends report (Rounds & Utilization, any month and YtD '19-'21)
  • KPI Scorecard (7 KPIs for month & YtD, single page, Year Ago comparisons)
  • Cognilogic (historical facility-specific Golf Playable Hours and Capacity Rounds, normally sold as separate service at $180/yr) and
  • Foresight (brand new, facility-level 60-day Capacity Rounds forecast and key weather variables used to produce it, normally sold separately at $360/yr)

Final cherry-on-top, GMRC is a product in the NGCOA SmartBuy program so there's a member benefit (10% discount) for the annual subscription.

You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid's Online Store.

Sincerely,
Jim Koppenhaver