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June weather, Modest GPH decline, May Utilization up 8 pts!

 
Golf Weather Impact:
June GPH off marginally, May Utilization up 8 points!
Troon Mgmt

June weather was off slightly and ended a 1st half that was basically flat vs. '20.  Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were down modestly vs. Year-Ago (YA) as the national figure declined 2% compared to June '20 (remember, Mother Nature neither knows nor cares about COVID).  That brought the Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH figure within tenths of a percent of '20 (-0.3% for those of you wanting to know, "How close?").  Regional breadth continues in the (barely) neutral position at 1:1 with 13 favorable regions vs. 19 unfavorables rounded out by 13 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%).   Subscribers to either the Pellucid Publications Membership or the Geographic Weather Impact report get the 45 regional breakdowns, the 61 markets figures, the day-of-week weather impact and the Year-End National GPH forecast figure as well as our full commentary on the results every month.

Played Rounds for May as published by Golf Datatech were a surprise, of the good variety, coming in at +18% for the month against a slightly elevated base in '20 as most states emerged from COVID golf restrictions at some point in the month last year.  That's a stronger "comp" than we had anticipated and suggests that the golf "party" continues.  June's OtR outlines a comparison of the May results vs. the '19 non-COVID benchmark as another momentum reference point.  To the critical question of how much of the rounds "up" was due to weather, recall that the previously-reported May GPH favorability was +3% so we clocked in at +8 pts on Utilization marking our 12th consecutive month of beating the weather, wow!

Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, "June was one of those months where you got a relatively flat summary number at the national level but which was anything but flat when viewed across the 45 regions.  Looking at the map, the East didn't have a good weather month as you'll see red arrows for the vast majority of the Northeast, Southeast and Great Lakes regions dragging down the YtD results.  Conversely, the Upper Midwest saw favorability due to relatively dry conditions and warmer, but still temperate, temperatures.  Interestingly, the "Heat Dome" condition and drought in CA/AZ got most of the headlines weather-wise during June but they didn't dominate the numbers for the month.  Why?  Well, because in 2 of the NW regions they had early month favorability so the Heat Dome simply negated that favorability (the 2 NW Coastal regions though did see 5%+ declines) while the CA/AZ drought doesn't impact our calculations for weather and golf playability (we're not trivializing the severity of the situation, just explaining that it doesn't materially, directly impact rounds played).  All of these highlight the fact that anecdotal commentary about the weather at month's end (the method of industry associations and various pundits that weigh in on industry health when poked by the industry or general media) tends to reflect the emotional themes of perceived weather vs. the quantified facts built from the hour up and accounting for all geographies and their contribution to rounds (Pellucid's modus operandi).  Coming up next is golf's national "apex month" (July, contributing 15% of total annual rounds nationally) and we're anxiously awaiting the June rounds results which are trickling in via our newest initiative, the Golf Market Research Center."

Speaking about the GMRC and the ability for courses to see their monthly performance in comparative reports the day the month closes, you can get in on the action by subscribing during the Charter Membership period from now until 7/31/21.  The Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) pilot participants have been able to view single page, comparative monthly periods for Rounds and Utilization from '19-'21 as well as having a 7 measure KPI single page report for any month and YtD period for which they entered data.  The GMRC gives you visibility to your Market Profile and, after you enter your Rounds, Golf Revenue and Peak Season GF Rate by month, to immediately see your results through our comparative reports with integrated weather impact.  So how do you "get in on the action"?  Glad you asked...

  • You can email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , provide your facility(ies) name and address and ask for registration instructions.  We'll get you authorized as the admin for that facility and send a User's Guide in 24-48 hours and you'll be set
  • If you'd like more information you have two options:
    • Watch the 18 minute GoToWebinar recording of the program overview and a demonstration of the portal and reports (fill in your name and email and it will open the video link; you're not signing up for anything)
    • Review the 2-pg program overview (Download Here)

The Charter Member subscription period is 6/1-7/31 and the benefits from being in on the ground floor include:

  • Future pricing "favored nation" status
  • Annual license to Cognilogic (historical weather impact, facility-specific, web portal delivered, unlimited use, $180/yr if bought individually)
  • Annual license to Cognilogic Foresight (60 day Capacity Rounds and weather variable forecast, facility-specific, also web portal delivered/unlimited use, $360/yr if bought individually)
  • Participation in the GMRC revenue-rebate co-op program

Final cherry-on-top, the NGCOA recently announced that we're now part of their SmartBuy program so there's a member benefit for the GMRC annual subscription.  The Charter Member train is leaving the station; after 8/1 you'll still be able to subscribe, you just won't get any of the benefits above (particularly the revenue rebate co-op program)!

You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid's Online Store.

Sincerely,
Jim Koppenhaver