Mar 2021 OtR, '20 Results and '21 Crystal Ball Coming Into Focus
Volume 20 Issue 03
'20 Results and '21 Crystal Ball Coming Into Focus:
As Tools Improve, So Does Our Vision
Hopefully by now all of you reading this know that Pellucid recently launched the no-obligation, free pilot program of our Golf Market Research Center (GMRC). We developed and launched the GMRC in response to the need by average course owner/operators to understand their market dynamics, their weather-adjusted Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for the month and Year-to-Date (YtD) and, when the sample size supports it, their performance vs. their market-level peer group. An important ancillary benefit is that, with enough participation across the key US markets, it will also give the industry (and potential investors) better visibility into market and national performance for the 7 KPIs that Pellucid/Edgehill has identified as cardinal indicators (i.e. critical, not the bird...).
As Exhibit A, Golf Datatech recently released the February national rounds change figures and the -5% for the month kind of got everyone's attention. Weighing in immediately from Jupiter FL was "the good Dr. Joe" in an email that sought to assure everyone that it didn't necessarily signal that the party was over yet, it was just an understandable speed bump of which we'll see several in '21 in comparison to '20. The good news is that, from our quantitative perspective, he got the storyline right. The comic relief in the email was watching him grope for the supporting evidence behind his intuitive assumptions. In this issue we'll provide the supporting evidence for him (if he's reading this, NGF could stop groping for the Weather Impact by simply subscribing to Pellucid's Publications Membership; after all, I'm an NGF member and benefit from some of the information they publish annually):
- We'll take a look at the February YtD results through the lens of Utilization (did weather account for all or some of the 5% drop in Feb?) as well as introduce the method we'll be using to track '21 by using the metric of 2-year annualized change vs. comparing to the wacky monthly swings in '20
- We'll provide some additional perspective to the '20 results based on the aggregation of the ~50 courses' results who are participating in the GMRC pilot. While they're not balanced across geography or facility types so therefore not projectable, they do provide an interesting, emerging picture of the types of things we'll be able to see in '21 and beyond if enough facilities participate to make it projectable (importantly, they also give us a peek at how Golf Revenue fared in relation to the robust, nearly-universal Rounds increases)
- We'll then update our SWEG (those who watched the State of the Industry will know this as our "Standard Wild Educated Guess") for the year and by quarter for Rounds in '21 as my evidence of why I'm feeling pretty good about my bet with Scott and Stuart that '21 Rounds will not match '20's results but will likely be +5% or better on the 2-yr annualized change metric. That would be a healthy outcome
Before we jump into helping Joe find his facts for our subscribers, if you want to know more about GMRC and get in on the free, no-obligation pilot until 4/30/21, there are a couple options:
- You can view the 20 minute video explaining the program and demonstrating the tool and reports by clicking here. You'll need to register at the landing page with your name and email (you're not signing up for anything, it just lets me know who watched), then just grab your popcorn and prop your feet up for the 20 minute "show"
- You can attend one of 3 live webinars with Jim & Stuart this week by registering here:
For our subscribers, read on to understand how our visibility is improving and what our "crystal ball" for '21 looks like by quarter. For our Executive Summary recipients, you can get the rest of the story one of three ways (all can be previewed and purchased at Pellucid's website (www.pellucidcorp.com)):
- Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership for $495/yr. Annual subscribers get access to all Pellucid publications (Outside the Ropes monthly digital newsletter, annual State of the Industry report portfolio (PowerPoint presentation, PDF commentary report, access to 75 minute video presentation), monthly Geographic Weather Impact Tracking (US, 45 regions, 61 markets), Top 25 US Golf Markets Ranking Scorecard (25+ dimensions and ranking for largest 25 markets) and the National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard (expanded data and tables underlying the annual participation and golfers figures)
- Subscribe to OtR, 12 monthly issues for $130/yr with a money-back guarantee if you're not satisfied at any time during your subscription. Subscribers also get access to the historical archive of past issues (last 24) via the members-only section of the Pellucid website
- Purchase single issues (including this one) for $14.95 per issue; click here to view available issues by title and select those of interest to purchase and download
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