September's weather impact finished in positive territory as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were up 2% breaking our 2-month losing streak. That nudges the Year-to-Date (YtD) results into fractionally positive territory at +0.2%.
Played Rounds for August published by Golf Datatech broke out to the positive side and, to our delight, were counter to the marginal decline in GPH producing a rare Utilization gain (rounds up, weather down) for the month of nearly 3 points. For the YtD period, rounds are now basically flat nearly mirroring the GPH result meaning, through 9 months of '19, we've played to a draw with Mother Nature
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "Sitting from my vantage point here in Chicago, I was hopeful that we'd get a bigger "bounce" in the September weather but we'll take the +2%, be thankful and move on. I continue to keep in mind that our '19 results are playing out against an abnormally low baseline (the crappy '18 weather picture) and that's borne out by the fact that September's results were 2% below the 10-yr average for the month so we beat a below normal baseline and matched the norm, yay weather... At the market level, we're seeing Utilization "winners" in Minneapolis, Seattle and Philly all posting >2 point gains YtD. The biggest losers are concentrated in Houston and Orange County both being down >2 pts on the flip side. Our year-end forecast stubbornly refuses to yield on saying that we'll be up a few points in GPH vs. '18 by YE but the positive comps "hill" we'll need to climb in the closing 3 months to get there is increasingly steep in my little analytical mind. We'll see whether technology prevails over intuition at the end of Q4."
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid's Online Store.