Sept OtR Abstract: ‘21 will beat ‘19 yet little changes
Volume 20 Issue 09
'21 Will Land Higher Than '19 Baseline:
Oddly, Little Has Fundamentally Changed in Golf's "Playbook"
No, that's not a typo in the headline; yes I am making the comparison to '19 not '20. Although there's still considerable golf to be played this season, the August results bolstered my confidence that, as things return to semi-normal (college/pro football, school activities, local sports leagues, dining out, movies, vacations etc.), golf will experience a natural falloff in interest and frequency for the balance of the year compared to last year's elevated (likely, record, but we lack extensive historical tracking) level. If so, we'll fall short of '20's 493M national rounds but we'll still be well ahead of the '19 baseline figure of 433M.
Colleague Mike Dickoff of Apparation, LLC had an interesting observation in a recent broadcast email where he challenged my suggestion that the $64,000 question in '21 is "How much of the COVIdend will we give back?" His point is that owner/operators should be more proactively focused on the question, "What can I do in '21 to keep my newfound customers engaged and playing at their '20 frequency?" Mike's general observation that we're not really "leaning in" as an owner/operator group is worthy of discussion and debate. I'll get to that in the If I Were King section of this issue, but in the interim paint the quantitative landscape of how this year is shaping up:
- What do the August Year-to-Date (YtD) results vs. '20 for the GMRC portfolio tell us about Pellucid's 7 Key Performance Indicators? (KPIs, Rounds, Golf Revenue, Rev. per Played Round, Capacity Rounds, % Utilization, Rev. per Available Round and % Achieved Greens Fee which is the "discount rate")
- How does that YtD performance compare to the '19 baseline on a 2-year annualized rate of growth?
I'll update Pellucid's crystal ball for where we'll land on rounds for '21 vs. '20 and what the 2-yr annualized growth rate would be vs. our historical trajectory (hint, it's exponentially better)
At the risk of breaking my arm in patting Pellucid/Edgehill (and our pioneering Charter Members) on the back, this is a conversation we couldn't even consider having in September '20 as golf was on fire in rounds and revenue. Thanks to the participation of our just under 100 Charter Members, we now have visibility to these 7 key metrics and, importantly, comparisons to both '20 and '19. While you can no longer be a Charter Member, we are running a Fall Promo until 11/1 that you could jump on and start seeing your individual facility's results through our Monthly Trend and KPI Scorecard reports as well as the summary numbers for the GMRC portfolio and what I'm calling "market collections" until we have enough participants to sample balance, do projections and call them "market benchmarks". Here's the details of the Fall Promo:
Pellucid Publications Membership
Most comprehensive coverage & detail - Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership for $495/yr. Annual subscribers get access to the following:
Outside the Ropes monthly digital newsletter
Annual State of the Industry report portfolio (PowerPoint presentation, PDF commentary report, access to Jim/Stuart video of presentation)
Geographic Weather Impact Tracking (US, 45 regions, 61 markets) or Cognilogic for Golf Playable Hours/Capacity Rounds for individual facilities
Top 25 US Golf Markets Ranking Scorecard (25+ dimensions, scoring and ranking for largest 25 markets) or Golf Local Market Analysis data workbook for up to 3 draw areas for individual facilities
National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard (expanded data and tables underlying this issue's summary figures)
Outside the Ropes
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